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Shock Slump In Minnis’ Support

Prime Minister Dr Hubert Minnis.

Prime Minister Dr Hubert Minnis.

By RASHAD ROLLE

Tribune Staff Reporter

rrolle@tribunemedia.net

THE Minnis administration’s popularity is waning, with fewer than 50 per cent of Bahamians generally satisfied with its performance, according to a new poll from marketing and research firm Public Domain. 

The number of Bahamians generally dissatisfied with the administration has increased by 28 per cent since last May even as the number of people generally satisfied with the administration has declined by 18 per cent. 

The poll also shows a substantial per cent of people surveyed now believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.

The poll was conducted from March 15 to April 7 and relies on a random, weighed sample of 1,000 Bahamians. It comes as the administration prepares to mark its one year anniversary on May 10.  

Respondents were asked: “How satisfied are you with the current government?”

To this question, 12 per cent of respondents said they are very satisfied with the Minnis administration; 35 per cent said they are somewhat satisfied; 16 per cent said they are very dissatisfied with the administration and 17 per cent said they are somewhat dissatisfied in the administration.

Twenty-one per cent of respondents did not know or answer the question.

By contrast, in a November 2017 survey by Public Domain, 14 per cent were very satisfied with the administration, 42 per cent were somewhat satisfied, 13 per cent were very dissatisfied, 15 per cent were somewhat dissatisfied and 16 per cent did not know or answer the question.

In the group’s May poll, 65 percent of respondents were generally satisfied in the government and only five percent at the time were generally not satisfied.

The FNM won the 2017 general election with 57 percent of the vote.

Joey Gaskins, an adjunct lecturer of sociology at the University of the Bahamas and a senior communications and policy strategist for Public Domain, said the numbers highlight “slippage in support” for the government.

He noted in a press release: “I don’t believe the slippage is permanent and there is still time to recover. But, one thing our polling over the last seven years has taught us is that once the Bahamian people form negative attitudes toward an administration they stop listening, and once they stop listening, it is very difficult to regain their support.”

Respondents were also asked: “Would you say that the country is moving in the right or wrong direction?”

Since the May election, the number of respondents who believe the country is generally going in the right direction has dropped from 67 per cent that month to 40 per cent this month while the number of respondents who believe the country is generally going in the wrong direction has increased from 21 per cent to 39 per cent.

Specifically, 21 per cent of respondents believe the country is going in the “very wrong” direction, 18 per cent believe it is going “somewhat” in the wrong direction; 12 per cent believe it is going in the “very right” direction and 28 per cent believe it is going in the “somewhat right” direction.

In recent weeks, the Minnis administration has emphasised that the economy is improving in defence of itself to Bahamians. Asked why respondents seem to increasingly believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction despite this, Mr Gaskins said: “I think this is a communications question. What’s the central narrative of the government’s economic development work? How has this narrative been communicated to the Bahamian people? “How has the government actively engaged everyday Bahamians in this work?”

He added: “When we polled after the election, 54 per cent of people said they voted for the FNM because after years of corruption and incompetence, it was time to throw out the PLP, not because the FNM had the best plan or the best team. In that same poll respondents answered at a rate of 44 per cent to 39 per cent that they were optimistic that the FNM would make the changes we need to turn around the Bahamas, and that they hoped the government would engage them directly in developing policies that will improve the country. Finally, people’s number one priority was the economy after the election. If we use these numbers to form the basis of a strategy to turn public opinion around, I would suggest the government has to differentiate itself from the last administration––it shouldn’t look like more of the same. The government needs to be seen taking bold, visionary steps to change the direction of the country.”

While scientific polls about political attitudes of Bahamians have been rare over the years, this is at least the third such poll Public Domain has conducted in the last year, having done polls in May 2017 and November 2017 as well. The company says its research is supported by an 18-seat computer assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) call centre.

The poll’s sample size of 1,000 is significant for the Bahamas, Mr Gaskins said, adding: “If you look at FiveThirtyEight’s tracking of American’s opinions on Donald Trump you will see that the list of polls they are tracking use a sample size of about 800 to 1,500. That’s for the entire US. A random sampling of 1,000 is great for a population like ours.”

FiveThirtyEight is a website focusing on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging.

Mr Gaskins added: “Public Domain is committed to ensuring its clients and the Bahamas at large are forming opinions and making decisions using as much accurate data as possible. Polling, however, is not a free endeavour. We hope that eventually, like in the US, we can partner with the government, media and news organisations to generate polling information and keep the Bahamian public informed.”

Comments

proudloudandfnm 1 year, 10 months ago

The FNM definitely gets an F- in Freeport...

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Dawes 1 year, 10 months ago

Whats really worrying is the last few Governments get an F in Freeport, and this is not due to a lack of trying. I don't know enough about Freeport to know what is causing it, but no-one seems to want those hotels. The hotels being open would be a short term strategy in stabilising Freeport, then work on other industries. At a guess though it probably is all to do with the interactions between the Port on one side, Government on the other and whoever is willing to jump into that mix in the middle.

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seamphony 1 year, 10 months ago

can somebody tell the MP from freeport to look a bit more interested and focused on what's being discussed (as opposed to checking her phone or sleepy eyes) at least during the televised portions of the parliament meetings that make it to zns newscast? yes some of us that are not yet 90 years old still watch it. sometimes.

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sheeprunner12 1 year, 10 months ago

Freeport needs to be abandoned ........ like how its inhabitants and their forefathers have done to islands south of Nassau........ what goes around, comes around - when you forget where you come from.

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Porcupine 1 year, 10 months ago

As if we need a poll to tell us that the country is still headed in the wrong direction! Do not blame the leaders. We put them there. They are a representation of us. Will we simply change leaders expecting better, or will we change ourselves and put better leaders in place?

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tetelestai 1 year, 10 months ago

Porcupine, you do realize we can only elect who is presented to us, right? It's not as though we can "write in" votes for a leader. So, if we are choosing the worse of two evils, how is this situation the people's fault?

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Well_mudda_take_sic 1 year, 10 months ago

It is the people's fault for supporting political parties that have a leadership apparatus laden with lame brain imbeciles and their cronies who are incapable of putting God, country and family over self.

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tetelestai 1 year, 10 months ago

My question remains. If there is no one else to elect but the same "lame brain imbeciles and their cronies", what are the people supposed to do? Are you suggesting, that which was foolishly suggested by Nicholette Bethel, et. al, that we should just file absent ballots?

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Well_mudda_take_sic 1 year, 10 months ago

The fate of the Bahamas has been sealed by decades of a deliberately neglected public education system that annually pumps out thousands of dumbed-down future voters who sorely lack a moral compass, making them utterly incapable of discerning right from wrong. If you can't figure that out for yourself, well.....whatever.

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bogart 1 year, 10 months ago

The persons, institutions, processes, f..l..c..ies who are complicit, a part of, directly related, instrumental in being responsible for faults, defects in governanve.......resulting in the massive historic 35 to 4 Representatives shift have not rapidly resulted in relief,.. corrections of injistices....and corrections involve more cracked eggs.....poor people should not have to wait with hungty belly while the guilty and complicit eat......the change is slow because we have an actual Accountant for the first time in history who needs to find the money before it can be spent to bring relief......and some of these perpetual money losing taxpayers continuous subventions money eating sucking up suffering taxpayers money without serious management changes agencies need to be sold...these money sucking agencies need to be sold and cut the debt and losses....instead of more taxes ....ps Papa Ingraham sold Batelco

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TalRussell 1 year, 10 months ago

Ma Comrades, it is not exactly a sunny April Thursday day when Minnis , KP, Brent and Jeff wakes-up to read in in the pages their most supportive newspaper - what stinkers the 91,409 who voted red on 10th May 2017, thinks the four man's really are. People by the thousands are ready march onward and upward Mount Fritzwilliam to demand the governor general to take swift royal firing intervention against the four Imperial stinkers man's. God save da Queen, and colony islands. The government's vehicle fleet department can later send the tow trucks up hill collect public purse's four vehicles.

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proudloudandfnm 1 year, 10 months ago

Yep. Freeport has a contunuing problem with poorly vetted investors. Ginn gone. Pegasus was just criminal. Associated Grocers built an 8 million dollar warehouse and never even moved in. Princess properties abandoned. Our Lucaya abandoned. Even Pirates of the Caribbean pulled out a full year early.

And the first big deal the FNM made was with a convict, a guy who faked his resume and a car/boat salesman....

The trend continues....

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joeblow 1 year, 10 months ago

Who's shocked by the slump in support? Not me!

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seamphony 1 year, 10 months ago

like if you're still traumatized by the last government's thieving and corruption that this government is still trying to uncover. sigh.

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BahamasForBahamians 1 year, 10 months ago

Essentially this guy is saying - press like if you're more FNM than Bahamian.

You don't care about the fact that this government is proving to be a dismal failure. You prefer to point at previous administrations as a distraction.

yes - like his post if you support that.

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seamphony 1 year, 10 months ago

if you truly cared about the bahamas and the bahamians, you wouldn't be defending the previous government which left the whole country and almost everything in it bankrupt and disfunctional for generations to come.
if you're fred mitchell, hey! how is its goin'?

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DDK 1 year, 10 months ago

Maybe BFORB thinks he can do a better job or has some realistic suggestions. If so, perhaps we should hear them.

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TalRussell 1 year, 10 months ago

Nobody to blame but Ma Comrades Minnis , KP and Carl Wilshire for being all Oban stuck and don't possess the political smarts figure out how unstuck themselves from Oban's ship wreck... likes fessing up facts over kinds people they've gone involved instruments peoples government with. We now know Minnis as PM and KP as minister finances - just ain't working out for colony islands - so go figure if they elevate the other Imperial red team player up da Supreme Court? This is red shirts inanity cause being all Oban stuck is same as volunteering spend time hell,

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licks2 1 year, 10 months ago

Tal I said "there may really be a broad conspiracy to get doc" when I saw that survey this morning. . .this looks like a combined PLP/FNM old guard effort to do doc in aye? I have never seen such an "attempt" at swinging the peoples them since I left my last statistic class in one of them "big" schools up north!!

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TalRussell 1 year, 10 months ago

Ma Comrade Licks2, this red type of hunkering down and attempting secure Oban hatch -has left many 91,409 who voted in Minnis, KP, Brent with a bad feeling the reds governing standards are far, far below those voters expected during the 2017 general election campaign. They sure as hell were not anticipating looks too much likes all they voted for is a repeat previous 5-years PLP governance. The PM whether be by accident or intent - did misled the House on Oban, and that's a fact,,,,and that is not a good sign of what else reds are prepared do hold onto power? Funny a House Speaker big mouth when it comes attacking Queen's official opposition - just brushes aside what was 'not said' in the House about the FAKE Oban signing affair.... what are they hiding from people?

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licks2 1 year, 10 months ago

Do any of you understand statistics, survey construction (dichotomy vectoring and truth scaling); SEM symmetry, inference, descriptive. . .or he difference between qualitative and quantitative data collection methods, confidence intervals in reporting data. . .test item construction? How to report mixed qualitative-quantitative data?

That survey was the most damn dishonest attempt to deceive the people. Professionals like me when presented with that junk survey would pay more attention to or symmetry at the SEM or 68% . . .looking for symmetry rather than the dichotomies at both -/+! The "trick" questions stems "trapped" for dichotomies. . .yet reported at the SEM. . .that technique is old for us who are trained in testing and assessments. . .it is called a Truth Scale. . .the questions are designed to push you into a direction! Then lump the desired dichotomy in with the SEM/68% and report bull-crap to yinna! THE REAL FEELINGS IN THIS SURVEY IS AT THE SEM. . .APATHY. . .NOT DISSATISFACTION OR SATISFACTION!! Yall got swing. . .

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BahamasForBahamians 1 year, 10 months ago

Licks2 and other FNM hacks will shoot the messenger before accepting reality.

This administration - since election - has failed the Bahamian People miserably.

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themessenger 1 year, 10 months ago

Things haven't exactly been rosy since the government changed, but then Rome, having been burnt to ashes by the last Emperor, won't be rebuilt in a day or a year even. Having said that , whatever missteps the Minnis government have made to date, and there have been more than a few, pale in comparison to the destruction overseen by the PLP government during their, hopefully, last term in office. You seem to have a habit of calling anyone who dares to disagree with you an FNM hack while blatantly wearing your PLP colors on your sleeve, but obviously are not a progressive thinker. Now you can shoot the Messenger.

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licks2 1 year, 10 months ago

I happens to be the expert in what was done there ma bouy. . .YOU ARE NOT. . .the last time we professionals researchers saw something done like that survey was the Levay findings. . .that research was used to train us in advanced statistics class as to what not to do in a research events!!

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TigerB 1 year, 10 months ago

As bad as it may seem from the survey the question still is, "Who do you Trust?" surveys don't necessarily show corruption, bad governance or who been doing skull duggery. In that regard the PLP has been exposed and more forensic audits are still waiting to come. We can say that the the audits are old stories now, and say that the FNM needs to start governing, I agree... but the bottom line is they are like statistics, they show reality and they never rotten. So not withstanding the " surveys"... who do you trust the most? That question will determine where I put my X

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gbgal 1 year, 10 months ago

Wake up call! Time to take stock and set new strategies...GB is still floundering, by the way...

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realitycheck242 1 year, 10 months ago

Surport for the government may have slipped but this government still deserve high marks because turning this country around will take much more than one year. Look at the posiitives so far. 1) A Decision has been made and LNG will be a reality in 18 months thus resulting i lower electricity prices. 2) The gin developement is freeport is due to restart.4) A new marina for Harbour Island. 4)The redevelopment of the Hurricane Hole Marina.5) A Balanced Budget by the year 2020, 6)The commercial enterprise bill is Law and we will see the results in a few years.7) Speedy prosecution and repatrition of illigals immirgrants.8) Relocation of the main post Office is months away. 9) The new Bay Street broad walk construction has started. 10) The new providence land fill take over agreement coming in June. 12) Clifton pier is being bulk headed to prevent the oil leakage into the ocean. I think the disgruntled folks in the survey are mostly the folks who expect government to be their Mr do it all but this is a five year race and i think the present government is getting good results so far .

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TalRussell 1 year, 10 months ago

Abacoians and Comrades Freeport, provably have developed a closer relationship than any other the colony's islanders. Imagine the financial boom if Freeporters and Abacoians were to lead the charge construct bridge connect the two islands together... now, a bridge makes economic sense, not Oban's sludge risks to not only Grand Bahamaland's tourism but also Abaco's .... not mention the severe damage credibility the Bahamaland. At minimum, the red administration is in dire need major shakeup.

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proudloudandfnm 1 year, 10 months ago

Abaco turns that bridge idea down every time it comes up. They also turned down a cruise port. Wierd island...

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TalRussell 1 year, 10 months ago

Comrade, Abaco is the most successful island economy by far and can't say I blame them being overly protective of the good islands within the Abaco's they've created without much help from central government out Nassau. The one mistake, and its big one, made by Abacoians is allowing Shantytowns get as far out hand as they've evolved...not sure if they're ready solve that problem?

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DDK 1 year, 10 months ago

Comrade, you are on a roll!!

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hrysippus 1 year, 10 months ago

Abaco is successful because the islands are perfect for boaters and recreational fishermen and also the hundreds of foreign second home owners whose families vacation year after year for generations. They provide employment and spend big at the restaurants, grocery stores, and boat/golf cart rental businesses. The Abaco model should be encouraged on the other islands rather than one large resort. ClubMed seems to work for San Sal although if the companyever goes out of business then .....

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ohdrap4 1 year, 10 months ago

abaco is afraid the vikings from freeport will drive over the bridge to loot.

me thinks they are right.

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proudloudandfnm 1 year, 10 months ago

Reality check. Replacing a bulkhead without first fixing the leak is as stupid as the day is bright. That is just flat out stupid.

As for the Ginn project. I'll believe it when I see it. When it comes to re-opening abandoned hotels this government is an abject failure.

Go sell ya talkin points somewhere else...

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proudloudandfnm 1 year, 10 months ago

Our Lucaya has been closed now for 1 1/2 years. Next month the FNM will be at one year. And our hotels are still shuttered.

Bout Ginnn. You gots to be jokin....

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Dawes 1 year, 10 months ago

The real fact for Freeport is no one wants to open a hotel there and the last thing any Government wants to do is own the hotel. If people wanted to they would have done, and you can guarantee Government has offered numerous tax exemptions as an incentive to do this as they need this to happen. Shame as it is a nicely laid out city, but the port is probably one of the issues that is causing this. Somehow government needs Freeport's other industries to take off to cover for the fact that it really isn't a tourist destination.

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TalRussell 1 year, 10 months ago

If I were advising the Comrade reds, but they don't likes pay good money (excluding auditors) they need prolong the House for a complete restructuring exercise makeover.... meaning when they return with a fresh speech from the throne- they come as a united government under a real focus on the top ten most pressing issues facing the nation - and it shouldn't include try lockup your political opposition... cause so far even that ain't exactly working in their credibility favour... either that or wait governor general royally fire the whole governing administration. This Imperial government's current leadership and misguided policies configuration have become a royal pain in ass. The peoples tolerance have no room left for anything do with Oban, Even Grand Bahamalanders are laughing at their red MP's. Amen to red change!

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Emac 1 year, 10 months ago

Licks2 is just a gad damn blind Minnis supporter, full stop. I have not met one Bahamian who is pleased with the way this country is being government. For the past 4 elections I have always voted FNM! It is truly time for a change. We know that the PLP sucks! But the FNM is becoming just as bad. This bunch running our country are just FNMs dressed up in PLP clothing! I am afraid that if we do not attract the bright minds that leave in the Bahamas to lead this country in the next general election, our country will be gone to the dogs, so to speak.

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licks2 1 year, 10 months ago

Argue with my reasoning there fella! That area is my specialty. . .and I tell you that survey was one "swing" attempt! Now why the raters did so. . I don't know. . .maybe he ignored the cardinal warning among us statisticians. . ."always assume that someone in the audience understand what you are saying". . .not all are dumb as bricks. Deal with my skills and knowledge in this are and not ya feelings. . .no wonder that survey tried that crap with yinna. . .they think we dumb!!

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Seaman 1 year, 10 months ago

It appears that not quite a year into their mandate,the FNM seems to be quite slow or even clueless. The mistake they are making is thinking Bahamians are ignorant to what is going on in their Country. There are bad apples in the party, mainly the old gansters from the past FNM. It was the FNM or the crooked PLP to choose from. The people chose wisely, no matter how bad it may seem. The best way to get sound Governance from them is to put fire under their behinds. Here in Abaco there seems to be very little being done. But sometime you have to demand things get done. Don't give up hope yet.

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licks2 1 year, 10 months ago

I agree with you. . .but when we put fire under them. . .LETS NOT JUST TALK CRAP OR THEY WILL IGNORE US AND THE PEOPLE WILL SUPPORT THEIR "BRUSHING US ASIDE" BECAUSE THEY TOO WILL SEE THAT WE ONLY TALKING OUT POLITICAL NONSENSE!! If yinna think that this government is a vampire. . .then get a true stake and jook them in the chest. . .not just keep talking dumb nonsense and making no real contributions to the cause of good governance!

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sheeprunner12 1 year, 10 months ago

Freeport will not improve until the Government remove the white man's noose from around its neck ....... The GB Port Authority/Hawksbill Creek Agreement.

WHO WILL HAVE THE ONIONS TO REPEAL THE HCA?????????

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SP 1 year, 10 months ago

Sheeprunner12....Apologies. I mistakenly activated the "suggest for removal" with your comment below.

Freeport will not improve until he Government remove the white man's noose from around its neck ....... The GB Port Authority/Hawksbill Creek Agreement.

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SP 1 year, 10 months ago

PM Minnis must realize by now targeting the countries leading endemic cast of corrupt pirates and allowing the old FNM gangsters into his party and inner circle was the perfect recipe for failure!

How could Minnis have thought he was going to root out corruption knowing top crooks would be affected? These devious people worked long hours to set Minnis up so he ended up exactly where he now finds himself.

The plan is to cause a no-confidence move on Minnis, force an election and have him replaced by a well-known pirate.

We the people see them coming and will vote the DNA into office before going back to the FNM or PLP!

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stillwaters 1 year, 10 months ago

I don't care if the support is less than 100%, I still don't want that last group of gangsters and thieves back in power!!!!!!

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Well_mudda_take_sic 1 year, 10 months ago

IT AIN'T LONG NOW, AND MINNIS KNOWS IT.

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licks2 1 year, 10 months ago

The people are the power. . .God determines who is in. . .we see the movements of the "circle" that holds this country in their grips. . .MINNIS CUTTING OUT THEIR SWEETNESS AND MAKING ALL EQUAL. . .THEY WILL NOT LET HIM CONTINUE. Dupuch said that they came to him and told him to join them in their coup. . .and to put papa back there where tiefing the people money only get ya beat at the polls then you can go home and enjoy the people's money!! Like Dupuch said to them. . .it can't be done. . .the people will not have it!! Me and a research colleague from UB discussed the survey and how slack it was done. . .and we both came to the same conclusion. . .the dogs of war are roused. . . doc getting too deep into their "honey pot" of corruptions!! They need to make doc look bad in the eyes of the public before they go after him. . .THEY KNOW THAT HE IS TOO POPULAR NOW. . .THEY ARE TRYING TO MAKE HIM LOOK LIKE A BUNGLER. . .THEN THEY WILL JOOK HIM! tHIS NATION HAD ZERO GROWTH FOR THE LAST TWO TERMS. . .ONE YEAR INTO THIS GOVERNMENT AND WE ALREADY HAD 1.8% AND PREDICT 2.5 FOR THENEXT YEAR. . .THEY DON'T DARE TOUCH HIM!!

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Porcupine 1 year, 10 months ago

Sorry, but nobody needs to help Minnis look like a bungler. He does just fine on his own. He says nothing on the web shops. He pushes this Oban deal........... You may be right on the honeypot of corruptions, but that says more about............................oh forget it.

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ThisIsOurs 1 year, 10 months ago

"God determines who is in"

This is partly true...well the implication that who ever rules is God's "righteous" choice, but oftentimes misconstrued. Sometimes God allows his people to suffer under a king.....as a lesson...(this statement is for the believers)

If all of this Sheriff business were really true why would you put Jesse James to look after the bank? Why'd Christie put Shane in charge of the hurricane fund?

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BONEFISH 1 year, 10 months ago

The slippage in the support of Dr.Minnis is not among FNM supporters.The PLP has not gained any traction or support.The slippage is among the swing voters.Many of whom are dissapointed.

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Greentea 1 year, 10 months ago

The qualifications and range of expertise among the people running for parliament is absolutely shameful- After the last election, I lost hope. From the FNM, PLP and down to the DNA the majority of the candidates lacked any real skill or training or experience beyond the Bahamas that would translate in a national leadership position.. There is a sharp drop off after the top five candidates. It is obvious that everyone else are just riding, but the country has paid dearly for that dead weight. The problem remains that Bahamians vote based on emotion rather than knowledge. We do not know candidates and now we don't really know parties. We do not demand debates, or public discussions with the candidates and continue to accept the top down talking points of the manifestos - without accountability. Utter BS. If you can't put two sentences together, think on your feet, have any ideas to present when asked or challenged for your constituency's growth then your good intentions to serve are not enough.

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